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The Turkish military has begun bombing northern Syria, empowered by Donald Trump’s public announcement that he had green-lighted a Turkish operation into territory occupied by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces, essentially exposing a key ally in America’s fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) to new dangers.

土耳其軍隊已經開始轟炸敘利亞北部,唐納德·特朗普公開宣布,他已經為土耳其的行動開綠燈,進入美國支持的庫爾德部隊占領的領土,實質上使美國打擊伊斯蘭國(ISIS) 的一個關鍵盟友面臨新的危險。

Trump announced that the Turks had his blessing on Sunday. By Tuesday night, Turkish shells began flying across the border and opportunistic suicide bombers launched an attack on the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the former ISIS capital of Raqqa. The following day, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdo?an announced the beginning of Operation Peace Spring. By nighttime, Turkish tanks were rolling over the border.


The operation will include an army of Islamist rebels opposed to the government of Bashar al-Assad, Erdo?an claimed.


Public statements from officials only make the situation murkier.


“The state of Turkey is worried about its southern border. To worry about this is its right,” said Iranian president Hassan Rouhani during a televised cabinet meeting. “But it must choose the correct path.”

“土耳其政府對其南部邊界感到擔憂。 伊朗總統哈桑 · 魯哈尼在一次電視直播的內閣會議上說。 但它必須選擇正確的道路。”

“We don’t think that this path will be a beneficial path, a good path for the region, for Syria, for Turkey,” Rouhani continued. “The main problem now is not northern Syria, is not east of the Euphrates. Our first problem is Idlib. It is a place where all the terrorists have been gathered. We hope that other countries, especially Turkey, cooperate and focus on this problem so that we do not face a new problem.”

魯哈尼繼續說道: “我們不認為這條道路是一條有益的道路,對該地區、敘利亞和土耳其都是一條好道路。”

Idlib is the last province of Syria dominated by Islamist rebels. Turkey has several observation posts, which have been attacked by pro-Assad troops several times over the summer.

伊德利卜省是敘利亞最后一個由伊斯蘭叛軍控制的省份, 土耳其有幾個觀察哨,這些哨所在今年夏天多次遭到支持阿薩德的軍隊的襲擊。

Russian leader Vladimir Putin called Erdo?an on Wednesday to warn him against endangering the peace process. According to a Kremlin readout of the call, both leaders agreed to preserve the territorial integrity of Syria.

俄羅斯領導人弗拉基米爾 · 普京周三致電埃爾多安,警告他不要危及和平進程,根據克里姆林宮公布的電話內容,兩位領導人同意保留敘利亞領土完整。

“Iran’s established position has been to encourage the Kurds to reach a kind of compromise with Assad to prevent any kind of Turkish invasion in that part of Syria,” said Hamidreza Azizi, assistant professor of regional studies at Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran. “There have been real efforts in place by the Iranian side to push the two sides toward compromise.”

德黑蘭沙希德·貝赫什提大學地區研究助理教授 Hamidreza Azizi 說: 伊朗的既定立場是鼓勵庫爾德人與阿薩德達成某種妥協,以防止土耳其入侵敘利亞的這一地區。 “伊朗方面做出了真正的努力,推動雙方達成妥協。”

But the SDF is not just “the Kurds,” and has grown to include many anti-Assad forces under U.S. protection.

但自衛隊不僅僅是“庫爾德人” ,而且已經發展到包括許多處于美國保護之下的反阿薩德力量。

In a recent report published by the Wilson Center, Amy Austin Holmes estimated that between 50 percent and 70 percent of SDF fighters are Arab. About 60 percent of the fighters she interviewed told her that a political solution is impossible while Assad is in power.

在威爾遜中心最近發布的一份報告中,艾米 · 奧斯汀 · 霍姆斯估計,50% 至70% 的自衛隊戰斗機是阿拉伯人。 在她采訪的戰士中,大約60% 的人告訴她,只要阿薩德在位,政治解決是不可能的。

Late on Tuesday, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif condemned any Turkish military action, but also brought up the Adana Agreement of 1999. In the pact, Syria had agreed to cut off its support for Kurdish guerrillas in Turkey and expel Kurdish nationalist leader Abdullah ?calan.

周二晚些時候,伊朗外交部長賈瓦德 · 扎里夫譴責了土耳其的任何軍事行動,但也提到了1999年的《阿達納協定》。 在協議中,敘利亞同意切斷對土耳其庫爾德游擊隊的支持,并驅逐庫爾德民族主義領導人阿卜杜拉卡蘭。

Azizi explained the comments as a “shift in Iran’s position from trying to reach the compromise between the Kurds and Damascus to trying to reach a compromise between Turkey and Damascus.”
“I think [Russia] wouldn''''t be happy with a major offensive, but at the same time, if there was a smaller incursion, they would not be as opposed to it as they publicly state,” Borshchevskaya said.


“For the likes of the [Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and those that are actually present in Syria, they would rather deal with a Turkish presence than an American presence,” said Dina Esfandiary, International Security Program Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School''''s Belfer Center. “Certain members of the Rouhani administration would rather have the Americans there, because at least they’re a presence that can be counted on, and they’re supposed to be helping the Kurds keep the peace, et cetera, whereas the Turks will not be able to do that.”

約翰·F·肯尼迪政府學院貝爾弗中心國際安全項目研究員 Dina Esfandiary 說: “對于像伊朗革命衛隊這樣的組織,以及那些真正在敘利亞活動的組織,他們寧愿與土耳其打交道,也不愿與美國打交道。”

Turkish warplanes have bombed Ayn Issa, the capital of the SDF’s statelet, according to the SDF spokesman’s office. The Rojava Information Center and the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights have confirmed this.

根據自衛隊發言人辦公室的消息,土耳其戰機轟炸了自衛隊首府艾因 · 伊薩, Rojava 信息中心和敘利亞人權觀察站已經證實了這一點。

In January 2018, Erdo?an had attempted this plan on a smaller scale. Turkish troops attacked the SDF in the enclave of Afrin, installing an Islamist rebel government in their stead. The Turkish-backed rebels confiscated property from locals, and took the opportunity to resettle thousands of refugees from elsewhere in Syria.

2018年1月,埃爾多安曾在較小規模上嘗試過這一計劃, 土耳其軍隊襲擊了位于阿夫林飛地的自衛隊,代之以一個伊斯蘭叛軍政府, 土耳其支持的反.政府武裝沒收了當地人的財產,并利用這個機會重新安置了來自敘利亞其他地方的數千名難民。

“[Iranians] are concerned that the Turkish invasion and the resettlement of the Syrian refugees—and those members of armed groups affiliated with Turkey—in the Kurdish areas will change the demographic structure of those parts of Syria to the detriment of the Assad government and Damascus,” Azizi said.


A few hours before Trump’s Sunday night announcement, Iranian foreign minister Javad Zarif addressed the Iranian parliament about Turkey’s role in Syria. A member of parliament from Mahabad, a predominantly Kurdish province, asked the foreign minister about Afrin.

在特朗普周日晚間發表聲明的幾個小時前,伊朗外交部長賈瓦德 · 扎里夫向伊朗議會發表講話,談到了土耳其在敘利亞的角色,來自以庫爾德人為主的馬哈巴德 的一名議員向外交部長詢問了 Afrin 的情況。

“I expressed my opposition in Turkey, and President [Rouhani] was also opposed to this matter. We believe that the rights of the Kurdish people in Syria must be protected. We believe in respecting the rights of all the people in the region, and international borders,” Zarif responded. “Of course, the security of Turkey must also be protected, but security is not protected by means of a military expedition.”