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Vietnam is the biggest winner from theshift in supply chains caused by the nearly year-long trade war between Chinaand the United States, according to a report, as importers from the world’s twolargest economies sought to avoid paying increased tariffs.

根據一份報告的說法,打了幾乎整整一年的中美貿易戰,使得越南因為供應鏈轉移而成了最大贏家,而這種轉移是世界上最大兩個經濟體的進口商力圖避免支付升高的關稅造成的。

The economy of the Southeast Asian nationhas been boosted by almost 8 per cent because of the shift in productionresulting from the US-China trade war, according to analysis by Japaneseinvestment bank Nomura.

根據日本投行Nomura(野村控股)的分析,由于美中貿易戰導致的生產轉移,東南亞國家的經濟已經增長了約8個百分點。

The bank studied trade data for the world’s50 biggest economies. Its report spanned from the first quarter of 2018,shortly before the US released its first list of Chinese imports on which itplanned to increase tariffs, to the first three months of 2019. The goal was togauge the extent of the trade diversions – the redirection of goods to avoidpaying duties.

該銀行研究了世界前50大經濟體的貿易數據。其報告的跨度從2018年一季度,也就是美國公布出計劃要提高關稅針對的第一批中國進口商品清單前不久,一直到2019年的前
三個月。目的就是要估計貿易轉移的程度,即為了規避繳稅而出現的貨物轉向。



Taiwan’s exports, meanwhile, shrank by 3.3per cent in April from a year earlier, meaning that despite the fact that it ispicking up some of China’s trade diversion, it is suffering as a result oflower demand in China, which is by far its largest trading partner, accountingfor 28.8 per cent of total exports.

與此同時,臺灣4月份的出口相比去年縮水了3.3個百分點,這就表示:盡管臺灣確實獲得了中國貿易轉移中的一部分,卻也因為來自中國的需求變低而受到了損傷。

“Importantly, these results suggest that if the US follows through onits threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on its remaining US$300 billion ofimports from China, it could lead to substantially more import substitution,given that a much larger proportion of this tranche of imports comprises ofelectronic products,” Nomura’s analysts wrote.

野村的分析師寫到,“重要的是,這些結果表明:鑒于這批進口商品中電子產品所占的比例要大得多,如果美國把對剩余3000萬中國進口商品征收25%關稅的威脅貫徹到底,便會出現更多的大規模進口替代”。

Nomura found that 12 out of the top 20companies listed on the American S&P 500 stock index with net sales inChina were electronic companies with a combined revenue of US$144 billion lastyear. The US is now soliciting public comments on the Trump administration’splan announced in May to impose tariffs of up to 25 per cent on the remainingUS$300 billion worth of Chinese goods, with a hearing set to take place on June17. If a similar pattern to previous tariff imposition is followed, the nextraft could be in place as early as July.

野村投行發現,美國標準普爾500指數中在中國凈銷售額前20強的公司(去年的合計收入為1440億美元),有12家是電子公司。美國正在征求公眾對特朗普政府5月所宣布計劃的意見,即對剩余價值3000億的中國商品征收高達25%的進口關稅,在6月17日安排了一場聽證會。如果繼續效仿和之前類似的關稅征收模式,那么下一班“救生筏”最早在7月就能就位。

“If recent US business restrictions on China’s Huawei and ZTEtechnology companies escalate into a ‘cold war’ on technology, the potentialfor major reallocation of global value chains should not be underestimated, asChina’s tech giants shift from US suppliers to local ones, and as multinationalsthrough the supply chain turn to new suppliers and customers,” the report said.

這份報告說道,“如果美國最近對中國的華為和中興等科技公司的商業限制升級為一場技術‘冷戰’,全球價值鏈大規模再配置的潛在可能性就不應被低估,這是因為中國的科技巨頭們把美國供應商換成了本國供應商,也因為供應鏈上的跨國公司轉向了新的供應商和消費者”。

The shift in supply chains has shaved 0.5per cent from China’s GDP this year, compared with 0.3 per cent in the US,since exports to US made up a larger share of China’s economy, according to theresearch.

根據這項研究,供應鏈的轉移已經讓中國今年的GDP損失了0.5%,而美國的數字為0.3%,因為對美國的出口占中國經濟的份額更大。



“Higher US tariffs penalise not only theassembler of the product, but also suppliers through the value chain, andsmaller Asian economies are particularly vulnerable, given Asia’s elaboratue chains with China at the epicentre,” the report concluded.

該報告作出的結論是,“鑒于在亞洲復雜精密的價值鏈上,中國正身處震中,更高的關稅不僅懲罰了商品的裝配者,也懲罰了價值鏈上下游的供應商,而體量較小的亞洲經濟體尤其脆弱”。